Uganda’s shilling is expected to come under pressure against the US dollar in the near term as concerns over an Ebola outbreak affect tourism activity and demand for foreign currency remains strong. Market participants say the situation could reduce the flow of tourism-related income, an important source of foreign exchange for the East African economy. At the same time, businesses linked to the energy sector continue to seek more dollars amid elevated global oil prices. 

Traders noted that uncertainty surrounding the Ebola outbreak may cause some travelers to postpone or cancel visits to Uganda. Since tourism contributes significantly to the country's foreign currency earnings, any decline in visitor numbers could have an impact on dollar inflows. Financial markets are therefore closely monitoring developments in the health situation and their potential economic effects. 

Despite these concerns, the shilling had shown some strength in recent trading sessions. Commercial banks quoted the currency at 3,763/3,773 per dollar on Thursday, compared with 3,775/3,785 a week earlier. However, analysts believe that continued pressure from foreign currency demand could limit further gains and potentially push the currency lower in the coming days. 

Elsewhere in Africa, currency outlooks were generally more stable. Ghana’s cedi may receive support from larger foreign-exchange auctions conducted by the central bank, while Kenya’s shilling is expected to remain steady due to remittance inflows from citizens living abroad. Nigeria’s naira has also shown signs of improvement, helped by foreign currency sales from international oil companies. Zambia’s kwacha, meanwhile, continues to benefit from strong earnings generated by copper exports. 

For Uganda, however, the focus remains on tourism revenues and energy-related demand for dollars. Economists say the balance between foreign currency inflows and market demand will play an important role in determining the shilling’s direction over the weeks ahead.