Qatar National Bank (QNB) expects the ASEAN-6 economies to continue growing faster than the global average, supported by strong domestic demand, favorable population trends, increasing regional cooperation, and rising investments in technology and digital infrastructure.

In its latest weekly report, the bank said the most significant risk to the region comes from a prolonged conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran. Such a development could keep energy prices elevated, weaken consumer sentiment, and disrupt supply chains that play a key role in Southeast Asia's manufacturing sector. Even so, QNB believes the region will retain solid economic fundamentals throughout 2026.

The report highlighted Southeast Asia's long-standing record as one of the world's fastest-growing regions. The ASEAN-6 countries—Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam, and the Philippines—entered 2026 from a position of strength after achieving better-than-expected growth in 2025 despite changes in global trade patterns.

Vietnam led the group with economic growth of 8 percent in 2025, driven by strong manufacturing output, a recovery in tourism, rising exports, and continued foreign investment. Indonesia expanded by 5.1 percent on the back of steady domestic consumption, while Malaysia recorded 5.2 percent growth supported by investments in digital industries and healthy export performance.

Singapore benefited from growing investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure and major development projects. The Philippines also maintained steady growth, while Thailand continued to face challenges linked to high household debt and other structural issues.

QNB noted that inflation remained relatively low across the ASEAN-6 during 2025, giving policymakers greater flexibility to support economic activity. At the same time, stronger demand within the region and increased foreign investment in sectors such as advanced electronics, electric vehicles, and digital services have helped reduce dependence on external markets.

According to the report, a major energy shock linked to tensions involving Iran remains the most immediate concern. Any disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, could raise production costs and consumer prices across Southeast Asia.

The bank also pointed to uncertainty surrounding US trade policy. While ASEAN economies have gradually reduced their reliance on exports to the United States, several countries have benefited from companies relocating supply chains away from China. However, US investigations into industrial overcapacity among some trading partners have created additional uncertainty, particularly for Vietnam and Malaysia.

Another challenge is weaker demand from China, which remains an important market for many ASEAN exports. As a result, QNB expects regional growth to ease to 4.2 percent in 2026 from 5 percent in 2025.

Despite the expected slowdown, the bank said growth prospects will differ across the region depending on domestic demand, trade exposure, economic structure, and energy dependence. Among the ASEAN-6 economies, Vietnam and Indonesia are expected to remain the strongest performers.